As the Election Day gets closer, the probability for presidential candidate Barack Obama to win is supported by not only almost all latest polls but also by the analysis results of several economic models.

Although some people make their points that it’s far too early to assume that McCain’s recent dip signals the end of his presidential chances for such reasons as his organizational strength, Republican Party history and his experience, etc., (By Chris Cillizaa, washingtonpost.com’s Politics Blog, 2008) but it seems there is no doubt that Obama will keep his leading to the end. Here is why.

1. National Poll & International Poll 
All three latest important national polls suggest Democratic presidential candidate Barack Obama is widening his lead over Republican presidential candidate John McCain in the race for the White House especially after two election debates.

The CNN/Opinion Research Corporation poll out October 8-11 shows 49 percent of likely voters questioned in the poll say they are backing Obama for president, with 41 percent supporting McCain. That 8-point lead is double the 4-point lead Obama held in the last CNN/Opinion Research Corporation poll, taken in mid-September and keeps the same on the poll taken in October 6. (From CNN Election Center 2008 poll, Oct 13, 2008)

According to a Washington Post-ABC News opinion poll released on October 13 Monday, Barack Obama is leading his Republican rival John McCain 53 percent to 43 percent among likely voters. Sixty-four percent of voters now view Obama favorably, up six percentage points from early September, according to the poll taken after last Tuesday night’s presidential debate. (From Washington Post-ABC News opinion poll, Oct 13, 2008)

The FOX News national registered voter poll released Oct. 10 last Friday also showed the same trend. Barack Obama leads John McCain by 46 percent to 39 percent. Three weeks ago (September 22-23) Obama led by 45 percent to 39 percent. (From FOX News national registered voter poll, Oct 10. 2008)

After the financial crisis made many people lost their confidence, the international market and relationship became more and more important for the U.S. to recover rouse from this crisis.  So the international polls also can mean something important besides the national polls. A poll conducted for BBC World Service suggested that Democrat Mr. Obama was favored by a four-to-one margin across the 22,500 people polled in 22 countries. In 17 countries of them, the most common view was that US relations with the rest of the world would improve under Mr. Obama. (From BBC World Service U.S. election poll, September 10, 2008)

2. Economic Models
Three economic models offered us a different perspective to see this election which also predicted that Obama will win.

“Economic models that have correctly predicted the winner of almost all post-war U.S. presidential elections say recession fears will secure a victory for Barack Obama in November.” (Editing by Eric Walsh, REUTERS, Aug 1, 2008) Fair’s model, Macroeconomic Advisers’ model and “Bread and Peace” model, these three separate studies all showed the Obama hopeful winning between 52 and 55 percent of the popular vote on November 4, based on current gloomy economic estimates.

3. Online battle & New Media battle
In this presidential race, New Media plays an important role and contributes a lot to Obama’s leading who is much more tech savvy than John McCain. According to a report on a new media conference in New York this summer, even senior Republican advisers admitted Obama is winning the online battle. “The vast gulf in internet-driven campaign energy between Obama and his Republican opponent McCain was underlined by the fact that Obama has just past the magical figure of one million supporters on the network site Facebook. McCain by contrast has about 150,000.” (Ed Pilkington, guardian.co.uk, June 24, 2008) Obama’s campaign’s superiority in its use of the new media as a political tool in the US presidential race undoubtedly makes him having the edge over John McCain.

–posted by Hao Zhou

Originally posted October 13, 2008 at PolicyByBlog

Leave a Reply